IMD predicts normal monsoon, forecasts 97 per cent rainfall

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Meanwhile, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a thunderstorm warning for Monday.

This forecast comes with a model error of plus or minus 5%.

Private forecaster Skymet recently said that India may receive normal monsoon in 2018. The MET department said that monsoon will be 97 per cent of long period average, which is normal for the season. The forecast also suggests maximum probability for normal monsoon rainfall (96-104% of LPA) and low probability for deficient rainfall during the season.

A normal monsoon will not only aid agriculture growth but could have a positive impact on the overall rural economy crucial for the ruling BJP government as it faces critical state elections followed by the big National Polls in 2019. If the average rainfall is below 90 per cent of LPA, the Monsoon is termed "deficient".

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Normal rains in last two years helped a rebound in farm growth rate to 6.8% in 2016-17 and an estimated 3% in 2017-18.

The IMD bases it's optimism on an assessment that an El Nino, associated with a weak monsoon is unlikely. Anything between 90-96 per cent of the LPA is considered "below normal". The IMD considers the Monsoon to be normal if the average rainfall is between 96 to 104 per cent of long period average.

According to IMD, there is 42 per cent possibility of normal rainfall and 12 per cent possibility of above normal rainfall - it means there are good chances of normal rainfall in the country.

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